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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-16T09:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-16T09:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45707/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely a region of dimming near AR 14418 beginning as early as 2026-04-16T07:06Z and continues until almost 2026-04-16T09:00Z observed in SDO AIA 193, centered around S08W25.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-18T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45711/1
Model Inputs:
2026-04-16T09:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=22.0, Lat.=-9.0, Speed=677.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-04-16T13:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-04-18T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260416_131300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
Lead Time: 43.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-16T18:38Z
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